Pulse Asia released a survey last week which showed that Noynoy Aquino is pulling away from Manny Villar. However the following week two other surveys showed that the two candidates were still locked in a statistical tie. In the latest survey commissioned by BusinessWorld, both of them are still pretty much in the running on almost equal footing. The other candidates though registered gains. Not that big but still it’s a sign that the voting public is slowly realizing that it’s not just a Aquino-Villar election.
Source
Brother Eddie is steadily moving up; albeit at a snail’s pace. Same can be said for LAKAS-KAMPI’s Gilbert Teodoro. Former President Estrada is also climbing back up mostly because of his latest media ad campaigns. What I find weird is that KBL’s Acosta has higher ratings than Nick Perlas and JC Delos Reyes. x.x
Interesting developments!
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Do not be fooled by any survey especially from Pulse Asia Survey and Social Weather Station Survey (SWS). I would believe it more if this is being conducted by a Foreign Company, but if this is being conducted by Filipino personnel it cannot be trusted! because they are BIAS most people believe that they are being conducted with favoritism. Nowadays, nobody trust Filipinos, not the COMELEC, not the Arroyo, not the Villar, not the Noynoy with his TRAPOS, certainly not the Estrada (the Convict). Now, what makes you think that surveys are trustworthy? There are over 50 million Filipino registered voters, there are only maybe 1500 to 2000 people being surveyed. 1500-2000 may be a legitimate number to conduct surveys, but doubts remain if Filipino personnel are indeed interviewing 2000 people. Who knows they are probably just interviewing just 40-60 people and call it a day.
It may seem this Carlo trust the survey numbers maybe because his line of work involves marketing. Remember, Filipinos are conducting the surveys and at the moment Filipinos cannot be trusted. Thank you to poll automation! the only main guide Filipinos can go by is with a candidate’s long track records of accomplishment.
Election surveys are just propaganda – Gordon
(The Philippine Star) Updated March 09, 2010 12:00 AM
MANILA, Philippines – Bagumbayan presidential bet Sen. Richard Gordon yesterday said surveys conducted by various polling firms are mere propaganda.
In a roundtable discussion with STAR editors and reporters, Gordon said voters should not base their decisions on survey results but on the track record of candidates.
“The surveys are nothing but propaganda. We cherish our electoral process which is very transparent. We vote, they count. I have proven that through automated elections,” he said.
Gordon said the survey firms should publish the names of people who commissioned the surveys.
“In the surveys, they don’t even publish who are paying for these surveys. They must. I demand that they show it. Every presidential candidate, every senator, every congressman, they must show. I demand it. In the United States, they do that,” he said.
Gordon also questioned the method used in the conduct of surveys, pointing out that when he ran for the Senate in 2004, the surveys placed him way out of the winning circle but he was elected anyway, even without votes from the Iglesia ni Cristo.
“I was number 29 when I ran for the Senate and landed number 5 even without the Iglesia. How can I believe that (survey results)?” he said.
Gordon said it is hard to believe that he has an approval rating of only one percent in the surveys when he got 13 million votes when he ran for the Senate.
“They have surveyed 1,500 people. Have you met anyone who was surveyed? How can I get only one percent when I got 13 million votes last time? I think at least I’ll get 10 out of 100,” he said.
Gordon said that in the previous presidential election, President Arroyo was supposed to win over her closest rival, the late Fernando Poe Jr. in the metropolis. But when the votes were counted, Poe won in all of Metro Manila except Las Piñas.
“We are enriching the people who do the surveys,” he said, adding that one of the owners of a survey firm now reportedly has a big house in an upscale subdivision.
“Who are running the surveys? What questions are they asking? Is my name even there?” he said. – Mike Frialde
According to Forbes.com
Here is the LIST OF THE WORLD ALL-TIME CORRUPT LEADERS. If you scroll down you will that FERDINAND MARCOS AND JOSEPH ERAP ESTRADA MADE THE TOP TEN LIST.
http://www.forbes.com/2004/03/25/cx_vc_corruptslide_10.html?thisSpeed=20000
1.) Head of Government: Mohamed Suharto
Country/Term of Office: President of Indonesia, 1967-98
Allegedly Embezzled: $15 billion to $35 billion
GDP Per Capita: $695
Source: Transparency International, Global Corruption Report 2004
2.) Head of Government: Ferdinand Marcos
Country/Term of Office: President of Philippines, 1972-86
Allegedly Embezzled: $5 billion to $10 billion
GDP Per Capita: $912
Source: Transparency International, Global Corruption Report 2004
3.) Head of Government: Mobutu Sese Seko
Country/Term of Office: President of Zaire, 1965-97
Allegedly Embezzled: $5 billion
GDP Per Capita: $99
Source: Transparency International, Global Corruption Report 2004
4.) Head of Government: Sani Abacha
Country/Term of Office: President of Nigeria, 1993-98
Allegedly Embezzled: $2 billion to $5 billion
GDP Per Capita: $319
Source: Transparency International, Global Corruption Report 2004
5.) Head of Government: Slobodan Milosevic
Country/Term of Office: President of Serbia/Yugoslavia, 1989-2000
Allegedly Embezzled: $1 billion
GDP Per Capita: Not available
Source: Transparency International, Global Corruption Report 2004
6.) Head of Government: Jean-Claude Duvalier
Country/Term of Office: President of Haiti, 1971-86
Allegedly Embezzled: $300 million to $800 million
GDP Per Capita: $460
Source: Transparency International, Global Corruption Report 2004
7.) Head of Government: Alberto Fujimori
Country/Term of Office: President of Peru, 1990-2000
Allegedly Embezzled: $600 million
GDP Per Capita: $2,051
Source: Transparency International, Global Corruption Report 2004
8.) Head of Government: Pavlo Lazarenko
Country/Term of Office: Prime Minister of Ukraine, 1996-97
Allegedly Embezzled: $114 million to $200 million
GDP Per Capita: $766
Source: Transparency International, Global Corruption Report 2004
9.) Head of Government: Arnoldo Alemán
Country/Term of Office: President of Nicaragua, 1997-2002
Allegedly Embezzled: $100 million
GDP Per Capita: $490
Source: Transparency International, Global Corruption Report 2004
10.) Head of Government: Joseph Estrada
Country/Term of Office: President of Philippines, 1998-2001
Allegedly Embezzled: $78 million to $80 million
GDP Per Capita: $912
Source: Transparency International, Global Corruption Report 2004
So what do you conclude sir? You think these surveys can be trusted? Also sharing this article to you.
http://www.manilatimes.net/index.php/top-stories/13001-good-morning
PP
My conclusion SWS and Pulse Asia Survey cannot be trusted! If you ask Mahar Mangahas (President of SWS)& Ronnie Holmes (President of Pulse Asia), I will not be surprise if their candidate is Noynoy and Villar. Like what I said at the moment Filipinos cannot be trusted when it comes to survey esp. if Filipinos themselves are the one conducting the survey in favored of their own candidate. I would trust a legitimate foreign company to do survey. Just like what Senator Gordon said “We are enriching the people who do the surveys,” he said, adding that one of the owners of a survey firm now reportedly has a big house in an upscale subdivision.
Here is another article that i received from FB from Carlo Arvisu who is a marketing and advertising practitioner.
election polls is the rage these days – it is the stuff of newspaper headlines and tv newscasts. presidentiables are asked about them and predictably those in the lead are thankful for the results while those at the bottom or not improving are all against it casting doubt on the results by attacking the research agency, those who commissioned the poll and the methodology.
the irony of it all is that most of the major candidates and even the laggards actually subscribe to the election polls we read in the papers. the election polls conducted by SWS and Pulse Asia are syndicated polls. they run this on their own but they make available to the candidates its results on a subscription basis. not only can candidates subscribe to it, anyone else who has the money can subscribe to them.
the rate of subscription vary on the kind of service a presidentiable wants. the rates differ on how the presidentiables want the results presented to them or what results they want to have.
the biggest clients of research agencies are mass consumer marketing companies like uni-lever, jollibee and procter & gamble although they use other research agencies like TNS and AC Nielsen. SWS and Pulse Asia do these types of research but very seldom, their specialization is polls on political and national issues.
the problem with surveys and research both for mass consumer marketing companies and presidential campaigns is how to answer two questi0ns, the last one being – what doe we do, what steps do we take as a reaction on the research results.
research and polls give a snapshot or a profile of the consumer mind and voters mind at a certain point in time. the consumer and voter mind is a living thing, it is dynamic and can change in whatever direction in no time depending on the stimulus or what the voter or consumer experience.
change in the consumer mind may not happen often and not as quickly but change in the voter mind can happen very often and very quickly. current events is the stimulus for this change and current can mean something yesterday, today or in a few hours time.
with readily available , evolving news reported and brought to the consciousness of voters, change in the voter mind can occur in a beat. we not only have tv, radio and print now, there is the internet, the social websites, blogs and even cellphone text. all of the above can influence the voter mind in an instant.
we saw the power of instant communication during EDSA DOS where hundreds of thousands of people exchanged cell phone text to express their disgust on the developments on the unopened brown envelope during the estrada’s hearings at congress. from disgust, the text content turned into people asking others to converge in EDSA and that led to the eventual ouster of estrada.
having the data gives the political campaign a picture of the current state of mind of the voter. with a picture in front of you, you can now plot your actions to change that picture. the problem is very few know how to do it properly. that problem is not limited to political campaigns but it is also true to mass consumer marketing companies.
knowing what to do or not knowing what to do is actually the second of two questions. the first question is this – what is the meaning of the poll results? and the twin question which is more important – what are the insights that we can draw from these results?
research and poll agencies will give the subscriber results, basically statements or answers to the questions asked of the respondents with corresponding numbers or ratings. these are in essence the statistically analyzed raw data. the poll and research agency will not give them the meanings and more importantly the insights from the data.
the data will need interpretation and that is supposed to be done by the client. and there lie the other problem. even mass consumer marketing companies are not very good at this, in fact many of these companies do not even have competencies to do this. we do not think political campaigns have these as well.
insights is a very elusive thing for many. in fact the marketing and advertising managers we have encountered do not really know what insights are. many of them think research data and results are insights. when they really the raw data that one uses to draw insights from.
the political campaign now has the data from the polls, what will they do with it now? this is next in part 2.
~carlo arvisu~
@mel
gordon’s statistics is simply NOT true. by april, SWS pegged his rise in the survey ranks from rank 8-12. he WAS in the top 12. the exit poll had him either rank 6-7. not bad.
google SWS for actual data.
personally, i cant believe gordon is dumbing down political discourse (not to mention statistics!). gibo is behaving with more grace.
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How about this survey by Campaigns and Images Group, commissioned by British and American investor firms, with 51,000 (Yes, FIFTY ONE THOUSAND, not just 2000) respondents from different sectors and age groups. Guess who they pick?
http://www.manilatimes.net/index.php/top-stories/16425