For several weeks now we’ve been reading about how restless several members of the administration party are becoming since they still have no standard bearer for the upcoming 2010 Presidential elections. Just recently though, 49 governors endorsed the candidacy of Defense Secretary Gilbert “Gibo” Teodoro. However, he’s not doing well in the surveys. I was talking to a few people about the chances of the administration winning in 2010 and apparently if you will base it on numbers they actually stand to have a good chance especially if there are a lot of opposition candidates.
President Arroyo’s 30%
If you will go back and check PGMA’s approval rating, it’s always been 30% at the bare minimum. That’s the lowest she’s been in the past 8 years of her administration. Despite all the media bruhaha about the indecencies and corruption allegations thrown at her family, she’s always garnered a significant 30% of support. This is probably the main factor (other than the cheating) in her 2004 victory of the late Fernando Poe Jr. Let’s do some dirty math using the 30%.
If PGMA was able to pass on that 30%, she could easily provide any candidate with a solid base of support for 2010. Let’s say she picks Teodoro. Given the fact that 49 governors are now endorsing him, he has solid political on-ground machinery which he can use for the campaign. Let’s say for discussion’s sake that the administration cannot get any votes beyond the 30% – will they still have a chance of winning?
Obviously, yes. Even with Senator Roxas recent declaration that he will step down there are still a lot of candidates who want to run for the top post in the land. I have a feeling that former President Estrada will push through with his run (if he’s not stopped by the Supreme Court). Senator Villar has also expressed his intent to continue his bid for the Presidency. Even Senator Legarda’s and Escudero’s party, the NPC, said in recent reports that they would field a complete slate. Brother Eddie Villanueva also came out with a statement saying that he will still run in 2010.
With around at least 4-5 opposition candidates splitting the remaining 70%, they’ll all end up much less than the 30% which PGMA can transfer to her successor.
The administration does have a good chance of winning and unless the opposition finds a way to lessen the numbers of the people running in 2010 they’ll probably end up on the losing end of the battle again.
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Sad to say, Carlo S. Ople’s analysis of the current political situation in the Philippines makes sense. Unless the opposition can unite and field a credible
presidential candidate with mass-
appealing platform and message of change for the betterment of the general populace, Gibo Teodoro may stand a chance of winning the elections with the aid and support of the 30% favorable voting base of GMA.
I totally agree with you on this, Mr. Ople. Sec. Teodoro’s chances, should he be declared the nominee of Lakas-Kampi-CMD, are still within the margins of actually winning the presidential race. This brouhaha about Sen. Noynoy Aquino’s so-called strong and formidable (Alex Magno calls him the Game-Changer) candidacy in 2010 will be neutralized by a broken Opposition. I doubt very much if he can muster as much support for his likely candidacy as his mother did way back in 1986. The conditions are markedly different from then and now. We’re working, though imperfect, democracy. Freedoms are basically secure. There is no dictator to speak of. Although of course, you have a generally unpopular president. Nonetheless, you are correct in recognizing that 30% support base of the President. The machinery that a united and huge administration coalition (assuming it does not disintegrate re: FVR and JDV) then, as you stated, there’s the recipe for a good chance of winning the presidency in spite of an unpopular Administration. My guess is that if GIBO is not chosen as the Administration bet, and I assume it would be VP Noli de Castro (who’s the only other serious contender for the nomination), the vaunted Lakas-Kampi-CMD superparty would disintegrate in no time. VP Noli may be popular but, in the long-run, and especially in the heat of the campaign, he won’t be the viable choice. The Administration Coalition is torn between popularity ratings (at this point – which is very fluid) and substance (competence, ability to lead, integrity, etc.). The former, no doubt, refer to the VP and the latter to the SND. So, let’s see how it goes. The nomination may be had by either on Sept. 15 or at a date right after that and within this month.
This race is going to be scorching. It’s Game On.
If Filipino’s willl vote for Gibo Teodoro, then stupidity will be written all over our body.What does this Gibo have done?
Yes, I’m sure that the administration will pick Gibo as their standard bearer, because when I was in the celebration of Lakas-Kampi merging, he got the loudest cheer than VP Noli de Castro. But “HELLO ADMINISTRATION” what is the chance of Gibo winning the Presidency?!
You know what I think? The administration of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo does not care if their bet will lose the presidential seat. What they care about is to conquer the congress. So that they can still push through withe Charter Change, so PGMA can be their Prime Minister.
Isn’t that their true plan after all?!!!
Without even knowing that Malacanang Palace has a Master plan, that is hidden somewhere in their library.
The 30% who approves of PGMA doesnt guarantee support to who ever PGMA endorses. I dont know how you guys can even consider that possibility. those 30% i believe were intellectuals rather than die hard supporters. The support of those Governors does not weights that much. Those Governors could not even carry the senatorial candidates of the administration last time.
On ERAP’s case, i really hope he decides not to run. But if He runs, regarding the legitimacy of his candidacy. Igan quoted Justice Puno a few day ago, regarding the legitimacy of ERAP’s candidacy, it is better not to be decided by the court and let the people themselves decide in the elections because in a country of true democracy, if the people has the OPPORTUNITY TO DECIDE in this case through an election, then we should let the people decide, they should have power over the supreme court.
this is a gross misuse of polls and an even worst interpretation of the results. its use and the interpretaion here is technically fatally flawed.
the conclusions and analysis is of no value at all.
Gibo will rise during the election campaign. Noynoy is not capable , inexperience candidate…he runs for president its because of his parents daw…heheheh thats stupid. i know he cannot lead and he cannot sustain the pressure of being president. Track record wise Gibo leads them all.
I dont think Noynoy being “inexperienced” should be an issue here. Im not a fan of any of the presidentiables, but I think Noynoy, being a Senator, has some knowledge on how to potentially run the country. His experience as a Senator may not be much help, but this experience may rule out the ‘complete incapacity’ that some people seem to associate to him. And I THINK IT’S STUPID to say that he is stupid by running just because his mother was the president. I dont think that you cannot do anything or become stupid simply because youre the son of a leader.
Speaking of other presidentiables of the past and of today, I dont think a lot of those who actually became president had the EXPERIENCE that other people are refeering to. What is the required experience anyway? Experience in ACTING perhaps? Experience in a slow response to national emergencies? By the way, hinting on GIBO, what is his experience that can be attributed to becoming the NEXT PRESIDENT? I’ve never heard of him! I think a lot of people have never heard of him, because basically, he hasnt done anything important to our country that would make him a viable presidentiable, as some people may believe? Honestly, the first time I saw him was the Pacquiao boxing fight with GIBO’s tacky commercial with teaching people emergency SOPs using the letters on his name. Isn’t advertising, although “not for promotional use” is not allowed before the campaign period? Isnt that illegal? Is his face needed for a the National Disaster Coordinating Council’s ad? I dont think so. So is that legal? Is that the kind of president we want to have? Speaking of ads, how about the equally tacky and malicious ads of Manny Villar, Chiz Escudero, and many more? These guys are shameless trapos that should be investigated. This year is the first time that I will be voting, yet I dont have a canditate in mind for the President of my country. Pity. What will happen to our country? How should the people vote when there are no good choices. Were not looking for perfection, but people, no matter how poor they are, can judge who is good. Can anybody help the Philippines? Save us from these CROCODILES!
Well, he’s on his way of winning it because people are now realizing that he is his own man with a strong leadership will…and he’s not gonna be a gloria tuta. I don’t like this administration either but it doesn’t make sense for me not to vote for a well deserving candidate just because he’s on the same party with GMA. The thinking Filipino voters will not listen to the negative politicking which this country is accustomed to – the wise voters will go for the competence, integrity, character (e.g. positive campaigning!)and will power in choosing their president. We all know Gibo is the fittest for the job. Probe his stand on relevant issues here: http://www.gibo.ph/issue.aspx
We should not base our votes on who endorses the candidates and who does not. It does not matter if a candidate is supported by Gloria Arroyo or Kris Aquino or Willie Revillame. What should matter are their own credentials, achievements, and platforms.
I have been personally offered by people of Gibo Teodoro and PGMA to launder in money from Hong Kong for Teodoro’s campaign. The people that approached me offered me 10% of the 200,000.00 USD that they were going to transfer to my account. They told me to withdraw the money right away and to make sure that the bank manager is a friend of mine so that the money wouldn’t be checked for money laundering. They told me that they were going to make it look like the money for his campaign came from his supporters when in reality it is the money that PGMA stole from our country. This is the money that they will use for his campaign and to cheat to make sure that PGMA does not end up in jail after her term.
I did not push through with this offer although I’d have to admit that it was a very tempting offer. I do know someone who did though. I know her full name and the excuse she told the bank manager.
Please do not vote for this man.
To Cassie, this is a serious accusation you are hurling at the Teodoro camp and I do not believe you. Teodoro is too smart to have approached someone like you for such a sensitive transaction, and besides, I don’t think he is a corruptible man, he is a man of intellect and integrity, based on what I have heard him speak of his ideas. I cannot for a minute imagine he is the man you are portraying him to be. You should be more responsible in giving your comments, they should be based on Teodoro’s ideas of governance, not to simply engage in character assassination.
I agree with Miriam. Cassie, your claim is so ridiculous it reads like a letter from a Nigerian email scammer!
If this really happened to you, are you sure you were approached by people representing Gilbert Teodoro and GMA or were you just had? I cannot imagine the kind of route that this $200,000 would have to take (Manila-Hong Kong-Manila) just to be “laundered” for the campaign. Naging biyahera pa ang pera. So hilarious!
I believe that if Gibo wins, he will not be GMA’s tuta. Why? Because he will be the most powerful man in the country. He is already the chairman of Lakas-Kampi CMD. GMA will only be a congresswoman and the party’s president-emeritus (a token position). Who will follow who under this set-up?
I also honestly think that Gibo will not sacrifice his honor and the national interest just to protect GMA. This has been the biggest issue against him, and he would certainly make sure that he disproves all the naysayers when he becomes our President.
Gibo is everything a Chief Executive should be. He is idealistic but practical in his offered solutions. He is intelligent and decisive. He remains humble and uncorrupted despite his rise to power and his privileged upbringing. He has shown compassion and sensitivity. He has the ability to inspire and awe. This is a man who can heal the nation and make all of us look forward to–and not merely dream of–the better times ahead.
GIBO, most quallified,he is the man and sure winner,
dito na tayo sa karapat dapat na manalong pangulo ng ating bansa,may sarili syang pangarap at desisyon,hindi sya popular pero kitang kita ang katalinuhan nya,hindi sya bulol kung magsalita.angat na angat ang galing nya,hindi nya kailangan ang tulong ng mga magulang nya para lang maging popular sya,go gibo,sulong.
Sa aking pananaw, nararapat lamang na manalo ang isang taong may sariling paninindigan.
Napanood ko sa isang Presidential Forum ang isinagot ni Gibo sa tanong na may kaugnayan sa “UTANG NA LOOB” niya sa ating kasalukuyang pangulo.
At nagustuhan ko naman ang kanyang isinagot. Tama siya, nararapat lamang siguro na tumanaw ng utang na loob ngunit DAPAT alam ang limitasyon nito.
Gibo has a good track record. I didn’t have the chance to meet him in person when he visited our university but based on my schoolmates’ comments, (ang galing nyang sumagot ng tanong, yung tipong itatanong mo palang eh alam na niyang sagutin at nakaka-convince) I would definitely VOTE for him.
Sa aking opinyon, si Senator Noynoy eh hindi ganoon ka “capable” na patakbuhin ang ating gobyerno. Si Senator Manny Villar naman eh nakakatakot kung saan niya babawiin ang ganoon kalaking halaga na nagastos nya sa mga TV ads niya (nalamangan pa nya ang McDo sa dami ng commercials).
For my Vice President, mas maganda sana kung naging Vice Presidentiable nalang muna si Dick Gordon (at kung nagkaganon, malamang sya pa ang iboto ko). As of now, wala pa akong nakikitang magandang iboboto para sa posisyong Vice President.
Though I cannot vote, coz I am a U.S. Citizen, but I admire this Gibo, such a very decent, intelligent and a potential leader in the country. Hurray for Gibo, his mother must be proud of him, such a good son.
The so called covenant that Noynoy is brandishing in his ads leaves a bad taste. If only people would know how Noynoy’s family got to own Hacienda Luisita . . . I recommend that you guys read this page: http://www.gmanews.tv/story/181877/hacienda-luisitas-past-haunts-noynoys-future
Nooynoy should stop using his deceased mother. Has he forgotten that blood is all over Cory’s hands? Mendiola Massacre? Himamaylan massacre? What about the teachers’ strike?
Tsk tsk tsk . . . Hindi daw magnanakaw, eh ang pagnanakaw ay nananalaytay sa dugo!!!
This is the second part to the in-depth GMA documentary:
http://www.gmanews.tv/story/182195/corys-land-reform-legacy-to-test-noynoys-political-will
Everytime gibo speaks, many are convinced.
Remember last 1992, the fight is thought to be between Mitra and Ramos.
But surprisingly, the fight is finally between Miriam and Ramos. And Mitra is on a distant third.
Why such a phenomenon, it’s because the youth speaks. Gibo have more appeal to the youth and the silent intellectuals.
I think he would win.
To cassie
Looked like you have been almost victimized by an African SCAM! This is my impression on your comment. Pls check exhaustively and name that Bank Manager for the world to read. Usually scam letters appeared in variety of disguises just like some writers here who peddled lies and intrigues for some gullible people’s reading pleasure.
Here’s my personal opinion on how the voter’s would likely to vote:
1.Not well informed voters – go for Erap
2.Who are used to patronage politics- go villar.
3.Emotional,vindictive hate filled voters – go for Noynoy.
4.Extremely idealistic, – go down with Gordon with an impossible quest.
5. Extreme Feminists – go for Jamby.
6. Those who believe in a leap of faith – Bro. Eddie
7.Intelligent, hopeful, well informed people – would go fro Gibo.
Gilbert Teodoro possesses two (2) of the most important virtues of a President of the country. He is competent and a man of integrity. His educational attainment and experience, as well as his irreproachable reputation, both as a an individual and public servant, is worthy of note. I hope he will emerge the next President of the Philippines after the May 2010 Election. God bless the Philippines
a man of invissible yet have high impact… his intellect suits to lead the country.. go go GIBO
For the first time for such a long time.Here comes a man that is so qualified to run this country.Please huwag nyo na sayangin ang mga boto nyo.Vote and help Gibo wins.
Personally, my choice to run and serve the Philippines as President is Gibo. He seems to be a man of vision and integrity. Among the presidentiables, Gibo has the most solid platform and I believe he can execute well. He also comes across as a very smart person with a big heart and strong leadership. It just seems bad that at this point he is trailing behind in the race. I have a sneaky suspicion though that Malacanang is using him only as a ploy and may actually be supporting Villar. This suspicion is premised on the fact that Malacanang seems not alarmed at the way things are shaping up – that Gibo is way behind and fact that Gibo and Edu are not receiving substantial financial backing. I hope the Filipino voters will have the discernment to make the proper choice.
I have made up my mind to vote for Gibo.
Gibo has made me not give up the hope of saving the Philippine nation from poverty. His intentions are smart and will convincingly be effective. I will support him all the way.
Yes! The Power of the Dream maybe fit to Gibo! I go for GIBO!!!! Hope that the people will pray for GIBO’s Winning on May 10….
SULONG GIBO…YOU ARE OUR PRESIDENT….
To Cassie:
kung ganon, bakit hindi mo i-report sa authorities sabihin yang complaint mo? bakit dito sa blog na to ka pa nag vent out.
in short, i do not believe it happened.