Juan Country » Erap Estrada

2010 Presidential Polls: Villar-Aquino Showdown?

Carlo Ople — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 09:34:32 +0000

The highly anticipated PULSE ASIA Presidential Preference October Survey is out and the results aren’t really surprising. Leading the pack is Liberal Party standard bearer Noynoy Aquino with a dominating 44%. Following Aquino is Nacionalista Party’s Senator Manny Villar at 19%, then Senator Chiz Escudero with 13%, and former President Joseph Estrada at 11%. Administration candidate Gilbert “Gibo” Teodoro only managed to rate 2% in the survey. These numbers are pretty much consistent with the recent SWS Survey which also put Noynoy on top followed by Villar. The big discrepancy here though is that in the SWS Survery, Villar had a much higher rating (37%).

The 2010 polls is shaping up to be an uphill battle for all the other candidates against Senator Noynoy Aquino. At this rate, it looks like the legendary “Ninoy” magic will propel another Aquino to the Presidency. You have got to wonder what Senator Villar’s camp is cooking up at this point. I don’t think they’ll just take this sitting down so they’ll probably mount a massive campaign effort in the coming weeks. They’ve already spent so much money pre-campaign period but it was all washed away by the free news coverage that Noynoy got after Cory’s death.

Another wild card here is Senator Chiz Escudero. If finally does decide to run, he might actually chip off the numbers of Noynoy. The youth and opposition vote is split between these two young guns and I’m pretty sure that Noynoy’s numbers will slide if Escudero finally declares his bid (if he ever does run).

Expect more congressmen and local officials to jump ship from the LAKAS-KAMPI coalition. It looks like Gibo has a tough road ahead of him and only a few people want to join him in his journey.

Another interesting thing here is that despite his declaration, Erap’s numbers didn’t show any improvement. It looks like the Filipino people aren’t willing to give him another crack at the Presidency.

The major game changers here are Erap and Chiz. If one decides to step down and endorse someone, whoever that person is will get a massive boost heading into the 2010 elections.

Ebdane and Estrada to push through with their Presidential bids

Carlo Ople — Sat, 10 Oct 2009 17:22:33 +0000

Former President Joseph “Erap” Estrada has confirmed several days ago that he was running for the Presidency in 2010. To make things more official, he recently said that he will be announcing his party’s slate on October 21. This includes his candidates for VP and Senators. Rumors have been circulating that Estrada has picked Makati Mayor Binay to be his running mate. For his Senators, Estrada shares that he wants to field the following: Senator Enrile, Senator Santiago, Senator Pimentel, Cong. Locsin, Cong. Marcos, Edu Manzano, Danilo Lim, and Grace Poe. It’s interesting to note that some of the names in his list, specifically Lim, Manzano, and Poe, have also appeared on the lists of other parties.

For his reasons of seeking the Presidency again, Estrada explains:

Estrada said he was seeking a chance to become president again for the sake of the poor masses who he said lost the chance to have their lives improved when he was ousted in the second Edsa people power uprising of January 2001.

“I am so frustrated because I was not able to continue my program for the poor people. And I was not able to bring this country back to its image, that this is an honest-to-goodness government and a sovereign nation,” he said in an interview.

“I want to leave a legacy as the champion of the masses,” he said.

“The presidency is a destiny. At this point in time, I can easily retire. Campaigning is difficult and very strenuous. But one has to make a sacrifice for the Filipino masses. And I want to do it.”

If elected, Estrada said he would pursue his plans to end the Muslim and communist insurgencies, which would allow the economy to prosper. He said the Filipino poor would benefit from a robust economy.

And if within three years, this “vision” is attained, he will step down and hand over the reins of government to his vice president.

Source

Another prominent public figure who is hell bent on running is Secretary Ebdane. His announcement seeking the highest post in the land caught everyone by surprise, including members of his own party. It looks like there’s no turning back though since his print ads keep on coming on a daily basis on various broadsheets.

Here’s the news article with more details:

TAGUM CITY, Philippines—He might be consistently at the bottom of the surveys but Public Works Secretary Hermogenes Ebdane Jr. said there is no turning back from his presidential bid.

Ebdane said his low poll ratings will not make him change his mind about seeking the presidency in next year’s elections.

During a visit here on Friday, Ebdane said he was counting on the support of various groups in Mindanao and other areas which he said had pledged to help his candidacy.

“No turning back. Definitely,” he said when asked if he would pursue his candidacy. “People decided for me (to run),” Ebdane added in a talk with reporters outside the College Assurance Plan Auditorium here, where he spoke before the Mindanao Leaders’ Congress organized by the Mindanaoans for Mindanao Movement.

Formed by businessmen, farmers, fisherfolk and other sectors, the M4M seeks to rally support for candidates who would push for the economic and social interests of Mindanao in national politics, according to its chairman Rolly Pelinggon.

Pelinggon said his group decided to support Ebdane because of the many infrastructure projects he helped put up in Mindanao.

Ebdane said he was overjoyed with the support he has been getting.

He also belied insinuations that a larger political block has been funding his presidential bid to muddle the 2010 elections.

He claimed that at least three political parties, which he did not identify, had offered to draft him as standard-bearer. Ebdane said he declined the offer because he had his own machinery.

Ebdane also said he talked to President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo about his interest in running.

“Why only now?’” he quoted the President as saying.

“I told her she had assigned so many tasks for me to accomplish and if I had informed her sooner she might be upset,” Ebdane said.

He said the President wished him luck.

Just some thoughts:

- What will Erap do if the Supreme Court says that he can’t run anymore? Will Binay become the standard bearer for his party?
- What will Ebdane do if the administration party officially picks Gibo (which looks like the case anyway)? Will he defect to another party and pursue his plans of running?

There’s still a lot of things that can happen leading up to the May 2010 elections.

Erap Relief Package Tickets

Carlo Ople — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 10:38:23 +0000

A few days ago I wrote about politician branded relief goods. Rowie, one of my former teachers from the Ateneo, brought up a point that there are a lot of branded operations going on. She’s spot on since there are “TEAM (INSERT POLITICIAN’S NAME HERE)” all over the affected areas of the flood. The most organized though is former President Erap Estrada. A photo of an “Erap Relief Good Ticket” surfaced just a few minutes ago on Facebook.

Caption: Ito ang tiket na hawak ng mga evacuee sa San Mateo, Rizal kanina para makakuha ng relief goods. No ticket, no relief good. Location: San Mateo, Rizal. 09/30/09

Photo Source

According to the post on FB, you need a ticket in order to avail of the relief packages. Will they really deny goods to families that don’t have tickets? Uh… I hope writing this won’t get me killed, haha!

Anyway, we still have to give credit to Erap for giving out donations. I recently heard of someone who declared her intention to run in 2010 for the Presidency and dropped by one of the devastated areas. She didn’t bring any donations at all. She just went around, made “kaway”, and said that she’s assessing the damage (toinks).

2010 Presidentiables – Box Office Hits?

Carlo Ople — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 04:39:09 +0000

This album was posted on Facebook by Gerald Magno. It basically has several movie posters but instead of the Hollywood stars an artist edited in and put in the pictures of the candidates in 2010. Really interesting and funny stuff! Hopefully these pictures will put a smile on your face. We definitely need light moments now more than ever.

Here’s my personal favorite. First poster shows Noynoy Aquino and Mar Roxas in the Martin-Gary poster. Second is the Twilight poster but it now has Chiz and Loren.

Next up we have former President Estrada being “dragged back to jail” by Senator Lacson:

But wait, there’s more! Here’s Vice President Noli De Castro:

And last, but not least, we have the administration slate.

O diba, panalo? Hahaha! I personally loved the Twilight poster the best. How about you guys?

Erap will really run in 2010

Carlo Ople — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 19:35:30 +0000

Citing that there was no hope anymore for the opposition to field a single candidate in the upcoming 2010 elections, former President and convicted plunderer Erap Estrada announced in a press interview that he will be running for the Presidency once again. He further explains that he’s talked to almost all of the candidates already, namely Chiz, Noynoy, & Manny Villar. None of them are willing to give way. Erap also shared that his party will field a full slate, including a senatorial line-up that features: Senator Jinggoy Estrada, General Danilo Lim, Joey de Venecia III, Edu Manzano, Makati Rep. Teodoro Locsin Jr. and Grace Poe.

Here’s the full press article on Inquirer.Net:

Erap gives up on opposition unity, decides to run himself
By Gabriel Cardinoza
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 01:27:00 09/26/2009

Filed Under: Politics, Elections, Joseph Estrada, Eleksyon 2010, Ping Lacson
DAGUPAN CITY, Philippines — Giving up hope that the opposition would unite in time to field a suitable candidate, former President Joseph Estrada has decided to run for president himself.

“Mukhang wala nang pag-asa [na mag-unite ang oposisyon]. Si Noynoy (Sen. Benigno Aquino III), hindi maaawat iyon. Si Senator (Manuel) Villar, di na rin maawat. Si Senator (Francis) Escudero, di na rin maaawat. Kaya tatakbo na rin ako. (I have given up hope that the opposition would unite. Noynoy can’t be stopped. Senator Villar can’t be stopped. Senator Escudero can’t also be stopped. So, I’m also running),” Estrada told reporters here.

Estrada was here for his Lakbay Pasasalamat that brought him to the towns of Calasiao, Binmaley, Lingayen, Bugallon, Aguilar and Mangatarem. This is his third visit this year to the vote-rich province of Pangasinan.

Both Aquino of the Liberal Party and Villar of the Nacionalista Party have formally announced their intention to run for president in the 2010 elections. Escudero, who belongs to the Nationalist People’s Coalition, has yet to formally declare his candidacy.

For his part, Estrada said he would formally declare his candidacy “at the proper time.” He refused to name his running mate, saying he would make the announcement at his formal declaration.

Senatorial slate

He said his political party, Partido ng Masang Pilipino, would field a full slate in the 2010 elections, including local candidates.

His senatorial slate includes Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile, his son Sen. Jinggoy Estrada, detained Brig. Gen. Danilo Lim, Jose “Joey” de Venecia III, actor Edu Manzano, Makati Rep. Teodoro Locsin Jr. and Grace Poe-Llamanzares, daughter of the late actor Fernando Poe Jr.

“We are also considering Ilocos Norte Rep. Ferdinand Marcos, and as a guest candidate, Sen. Miriam Defensor-Santiago,” Estrada said.

In Pangasinan, he said he is “inclined” to support Rep. Victor Agbayani, who has declared his intention to challenge incumbent Gov. Amado Espino Jr.

“[Agbayani and I] have talked but [we have not reached] a final decision yet,” Estrada said.

In the province’s congressional races, he said he would support the bids of television news reporter Maki Pulido in the first district, and Gina de Venecia in the fourth district. Her husband, former Speaker Jose de Venecia Jr., is finishing his third and last term.

Religious family

Estrada also denied the accusations made by Sen. Panfilo Lacson in his privilege speeches in the Senate.

Lacson had indicated that Estrada may have been involved in the December 2000 murders of publicist Salvador Dacer and his driver, Emmanuel Corbito.

“Pure fiction. I have never been charged with murder. I was brought up by a very religious family,” Estrada said in English and Filipino.

The antigraft court convicted the former President of plunder in September 2007 and sentenced him to 40 years in prison. Estrada never served the prison term, however, as President Macapagal-Arroyo granted him a pardon barely a month after.

Asked who among the presidential aspirants he considered as his strongest opponent, Estrada said: “It’s too early to tell.”

Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro Jr. is also running for president under the administration Lakas-Kampi-CMD party.

“We will know by January or February [next year],” Estrada said.

Just some thoughts on this issue. One, I don’t believe that Estrada should be able to run again. If I were to use the logic of him not completing his term therefore he can run again, then GMA should just resign now (so that she wasn’t able to complete her term) so that she can run again for the Presidency in 2010.

Next, it’s really okay to forgive, but I don’t think it’s just right to elect a convicted plunderer to the highest position in the land.

Lastly, we would be the laughing stock of the international community.

The only plus side I’m seeing in the event that he wins is that I’ll be able to sell my dollars at a much higher rate because the peso exchange rate would probably be like 1000PHP = $1.

Ted Failon declines Estrada offer to run for Senator

Carlo Ople — Fri, 28 Aug 2009 00:25:54 +0000

ABS-CBN veteran broadcaster Ted Failon declined last night an invitation by former President Erap Estrada to run for Senator in the upcoming 2010 elections. In a press conference yesterday, Estrada said that he was going to formally announce his decision if he will run for President next month. During his speech, he also dropped several names of possible candidates that would be part of the Senate slate of his party. One of the names that came out was Ted Failon’s.

In a news bit last night shown during TV Patrol, Ted Failon declined the offer of Estrada. In response, Estrada explains that he will continue to reach out and convince Failon to run for Senate under his party.

Nothing much to be said here but let me just applaud Ted Failon for turning down Estrada’s offer. I’m pretty sure it’s mighty tempting for him to just say yes but he decided not to. However, it’s also too early for us to think that he really won’t run. There are still a few more months before the deadline for filing of candidacies so he might still change his mind along the way.

Pulse Asia Survey shows Villar still on top

Carlo Ople — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 07:03:45 +0000

It looks like the recent SWS survey wasn’t a fluke. The latest Pulse Asia report shows that Senator Manny Villar is still leading the race for the Presidency in 2010. 25% of the respondents said that they would vote for him for President. Following Senator Villar is former President Erap Estrada (19%), Vice President Noli De Castro (16%), Senator Chiz Escudero (12%), and Senator Mar Roxas (11%).

According to the survey, respondents base their decision on who to vote for depending on the previous accomplishments and achievements. If this is the case, then Senator Villar is on-strat when it comes to his media plan. If you guys notice, all of his communications focus on what he’s done so far. That’s probably why he’s rating high.

Another major finding here is that Villar is rating high on the D and E classes. This is the crucial segment because they deliver bulk of the vote in elections. Senator Escudero topped the A, B, and C voter preference.

What is this saying? Basically whoever is running Villar’s campaign and communications is a genius. Intentionally or unintentionally the messaging of their campaign is the primary factor why they’re getting high numbers.

Here’s the press release posted on Philippine Star:

MANILA, Philippines – Sen. Manny Villar once again topped another survey on who Filipinos prefer to be the country’s next president.

According to the survey results released today (Aug. 25) by Pulse Asia, one in four Filipinos (25 percent) would elect Villar as President Arroyo’s successor if elections were held today.

Voter preference for the former Senate President between May and August 2009 increased by 11 percentage points, the pollster added.

Former President Joseph Estrada is at second place with 19 percent, followed by Vice President Noli de Castro (16 percent), and Senators Francis Escudero (12 percent) and Mar Roxas (11 percent).

Meanwhile, Villar was also the top presidential contender in Metro Manila, Luzon and Visayas (25 percent, 22 percent and 30 percent, respectively). Likewise, he, along with Estrada, registered the highest voter preference in Mindanao (30 percent).

The only category Villar trailed in was the best-off Class ABC demographic, which preferred Escudero (30 percent). Nevertheless, Villar commanded the highest voter preference in Classes D and E (25 percent and 23 percent, respectively).

Pulse Asia said 25 percent of Filipinos consider a candidate’s accomplishments as the main factor in voting him to be next chief executive.

“About one in four Filipinos (25 percent) is voting for his/her preferred presidential bet because of the candidate’s many accomplishments. On the other hand, one in five (20 percent) Filipinos rationalized their choice of candidate based on the preferred bet’s pro-poor orientation,” the pollster said.

Pulse Asia’s latest survey, conducted from July 28 to August 10, 2009, employed face-to-face interviews of 1,800 representative adults 18 years old and above. It has a ±2 percent error margin at the 95 percent confidence level.

Villar, who currently employs TV advertisements heavily to boost his popularity, also topped the latest SWS survey on presidentiables. According to data released by the pollster yesterday, he received an approval rating of 22 percent, followed by Estrada (19 percent) and Escudero (18 percent).

Reports, however, said the SWS poll was commissioned by Villar himself.

Biggest challenge here for other Presidential aspirants is how they will be able to grab a larger chunk of the D and E market segments.

Latest SWS Surveys says it’s Villar, Estrada, and Chiz

Carlo Ople — Mon, 24 Aug 2009 08:54:30 +0000

The latest SWS Survey commissioned by Senator and Presidential aspirant Manny Villar shows that the top three front runners are: Senator Manny Villar (22%), Former President Joseph Estrada (19%), and Senator Francis “Chiz” Escudero (18%). It’s not surprising to see this because Senator Villar has really been pouring out massive amounts of resources in trying to build his name for the upcoming 2010 elections. He’s been doing television, radio, print, and online for almost 6 months straight now and I can only assume that his spending will intensify even more when the real campaign season kicks in. By the way, I had coffee with Senator Villar a few weeks ago. You might want to read about it in my previous post.

Erap Estrada – Icon of the Masses
Former President Estrada, who has been reported to be going all over the Philippines in political sorties also put up good numbers. I can understand perfectly why he can get jailed for plunder and still enjoy the support from the masses. I’ve seen him on television and I’ve seen his Arthro commercial and there’s one thing that I can say confidently – this guy has the most charm and appeal for the average normal Filipino. The way he moves and speaks has been refined by years in the movie industry. He knows how to tickle the funny bone of the masses. What he lacks in actual political savvy, he makes up for it with wit, humor, and the ability to inspire.

Chiz – Constant Performer
Senator Francis “Chiz” Escudero has been a constant solid performer in surveys since last year. This is interesting since he really hasn’t gotten out of his way to promote himself yet through television or radio. The most he’s done is to appear during Presidential forum events which are usually organized by TV stations or non-government agencies. His ability to easily connect with the youth is one of his strongest traits. Other than that, I believe that his hard line opposition to the Arroyo administration has sky rocketed his political capital in the past few years. Not once have I seen him stand down in favor of the administration. You can expect his ratings to soar even higher if and when he finally decides to announce his candidacy for President in 2010.

Like Senator Villar, I’ve had the honor of having coffee with this guy. You can read about the “Chiz” experience in my previous article.

Following the top 3 are VP Noli De Castro (14%), Senator Mar Roxas (10%), Senator Loren Legarda (6%), Senator Lacson (3%), Mayor Binay (3%), MMDA Chairman Fernando (1%), and Defense Secretary Gibo Teodoro (0.3%).

Just some random thoughts on the other placers:

- Despite all the ad spending and his highly publicized engagement with Korina, Senator Roxas is still at 5th place. Awareness for Senator Roxas is there… but why aren’t the people picking him over the other candidates? Some people say that the SWS survey is biased since Senator Villar commissioned it. I would love to validate this survey through the next Pulse Asia report which should come out soon.

- Another puzzling trend is the decline of Senator Loren Legarda. She used to place fairly well in surveys but she’s been constantly going down in the past few months. I wonder what’s going on here. Maybe it’s the lack of media exposure?

- If Gibo’s performance doesn’t improve in the next Pulse Asia survey, I highly doubt he’ll be picked by the administration party to be the standard bearer.

- All three religious leaders: Among Ed, Bro. Eddie, and Bro. Mike are not even on the list. This maybe because they only declared recently. Would love to see the next survey to see if they can actually make an impact on the list.

- Also noticed that Senator Jamby Madrigal isn’t on the list as well. Let’s see next time if she’ll show up given her recent announcement. Since she’s insanely wealthy, I wouldn’t be surprised to see her match the intensity of the ads of Senators Villar and Roxas.

- Lastly, would love to see Senator Noynoy Aquino’s impact in the next survey.

Your thoughts on this guys? Feel free to leave a comment.

Brother Mike’s “Secret” Deal with Erap

Carlo Ople — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 06:41:34 +0000

It looks like El Shaddai leader Brother Mike Velarde isn’t done dropping bombshells. Just this morning in an interview with GMA 7, he revealed that he’s been talking with former President Erap Estrada about his political plans for 2010. In the interview, he revealed that either one of them will run in 2010. If the law doesn’t hinder Erap from running, then Brother Mike will bow out and support Estrada’s candidacy. If Erap is prohibited, then Erap will back up Brother Mike’s campaign instead. Now this is just one of the most insane alliances I’ve ever heard of but it looks like it will push through. This has a lot of implications that can really change the 2010 landscape.

Former President Estrada denied this though and explains that he only sent his son to talk with Brother Mike during his 70th birthday celebration. Ugh. Someone get their story straight before talking to the media.

Here’s the news clip that I’m talking about:

This page requires a higher version browser
For the latest Philippine news stories and videos, visit GMANews.TV

Here’s the direct quote on text for your perusal in English and in Filipino:

“Eto ire-reveal ko na sa inyo, nag-usap na kami ni Erap, ang usapan kung hindi ka mapipigil, sasabayan kita. Sabi niya bakit, sabi ko para kapag nadisqualify ka, ako ang kandidato mo, eh kung hindi ka madisqualify, ikaw ang kandidato ko, so we shook hands and that’s the deal,” he said.

(I will reveal this to you, Erap and I have already talked, we agreed that if he can’t be stopped, I will also run with him. He asked me why, I said that if he gets disqualified, I will be his candidate, if he doesn’t get disqualified, he will be my candidate, so we shook hands and that’s the deal.)

What I don’t understand here is that Brother Mike said earlier that the primary factor that will influence his decision to run would be the voice of his followers in El Shaddai. It looks like he’s listening to some other voice since he’s already working on alliances this early. I know that Jesus has been preaching forgiveness, but it’s just wrong to see a religious charismatic leader doing shady secret deals with a convicted plunderer. It’s just not right.

Follow me on Twitter or add me up on Facebook! You can also Subscribe to Juan Country by Email.

Former President Estrada Overtakes Padyak

Carlo Ople — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 11:17:22 +0000

I was watching a news program on channel 7 this evening when a 30 second advertisement caught my undivided attention. It showed former President Joseph “Erap” Estrada taking a food supplement called Artho which would “enable” him to run despite his old age and knee problems. In the ad, he’s seen jogging and outpacing what seems to be someone that looks like Senator Mar Roxas on a Padyak! Hahahaha! Whoever is behind this ad is just brilliant! Not only was it entertaining, it’s relevant to the times. At least Senator Roxas is getting free media mileage from his Padyak campaign even in the ads of other candidates. His team can consider that a bonus.

Anyway, I tried to look for the ad online and I was able to find one on Youtube. Here’s the 30 second TVC. Watch out for the Padyak!

Here’s a more high resolution screenshot of the scene where you see Erap outrunning the Padyak.

The guy who made this should win an award. LOL.