The latest SWS Survey commissioned by Senator and Presidential aspirant Manny Villar shows that the top three front runners are: Senator Manny Villar (22%), Former President Joseph Estrada (19%), and Senator Francis “Chiz” Escudero (18%). It’s not surprising to see this because Senator Villar has really been pouring out massive amounts of resources in trying to build his name for the upcoming 2010 elections. He’s been doing television, radio, print, and online for almost 6 months straight now and I can only assume that his spending will intensify even more when the real campaign season kicks in. By the way, I had coffee with Senator Villar a few weeks ago. You might want to read about it in my previous post.

Erap Estrada – Icon of the Masses
Former President Estrada, who has been reported to be going all over the Philippines in political sorties also put up good numbers. I can understand perfectly why he can get jailed for plunder and still enjoy the support from the masses. I’ve seen him on television and I’ve seen his Arthro commercial and there’s one thing that I can say confidently – this guy has the most charm and appeal for the average normal Filipino. The way he moves and speaks has been refined by years in the movie industry. He knows how to tickle the funny bone of the masses. What he lacks in actual political savvy, he makes up for it with wit, humor, and the ability to inspire.

Chiz – Constant Performer
Senator Francis “Chiz” Escudero has been a constant solid performer in surveys since last year. This is interesting since he really hasn’t gotten out of his way to promote himself yet through television or radio. The most he’s done is to appear during Presidential forum events which are usually organized by TV stations or non-government agencies. His ability to easily connect with the youth is one of his strongest traits. Other than that, I believe that his hard line opposition to the Arroyo administration has sky rocketed his political capital in the past few years. Not once have I seen him stand down in favor of the administration. You can expect his ratings to soar even higher if and when he finally decides to announce his candidacy for President in 2010.

Like Senator Villar, I’ve had the honor of having coffee with this guy. You can read about the “Chiz” experience in my previous article.

Following the top 3 are VP Noli De Castro (14%), Senator Mar Roxas (10%), Senator Loren Legarda (6%), Senator Lacson (3%), Mayor Binay (3%), MMDA Chairman Fernando (1%), and Defense Secretary Gibo Teodoro (0.3%).

Just some random thoughts on the other placers:

- Despite all the ad spending and his highly publicized engagement with Korina, Senator Roxas is still at 5th place. Awareness for Senator Roxas is there… but why aren’t the people picking him over the other candidates? Some people say that the SWS survey is biased since Senator Villar commissioned it. I would love to validate this survey through the next Pulse Asia report which should come out soon.

- Another puzzling trend is the decline of Senator Loren Legarda. She used to place fairly well in surveys but she’s been constantly going down in the past few months. I wonder what’s going on here. Maybe it’s the lack of media exposure?

- If Gibo’s performance doesn’t improve in the next Pulse Asia survey, I highly doubt he’ll be picked by the administration party to be the standard bearer.

- All three religious leaders: Among Ed, Bro. Eddie, and Bro. Mike are not even on the list. This maybe because they only declared recently. Would love to see the next survey to see if they can actually make an impact on the list.

- Also noticed that Senator Jamby Madrigal isn’t on the list as well. Let’s see next time if she’ll show up given her recent announcement. Since she’s insanely wealthy, I wouldn’t be surprised to see her match the intensity of the ads of Senators Villar and Roxas.

- Lastly, would love to see Senator Noynoy Aquino’s impact in the next survey.

Your thoughts on this guys? Feel free to leave a comment.

Related posts:

1. Latest SWS and Manila Standard Surveys say Villar is tied with Aquino; Pulse says otherwise
2. Pulse Asia Survey shows Villar still on top
3. Aquino and Villar dominate latest SWS survey

The COMELEC approved recount of the Pampanga elections for Governor is telling a different story from the original results of the election in 2007. In the recent elections, Ed Panlilio was able to beat Lilia “Baby” Pineda with a very slim margin of around 1,000+ votes. So far in the recount it’s Pineda who’s leading Gov. Panlilio. They’ve already opened more than 1,000 ballot boxes out of 4,500+. According to Pineda’s lawyer, the reason for the turn of the tide was COMELEC’s decision to allow “Nanay Baby” votes to be validated and included in Pineda’s favor. However, Panlilio’s camp quickly dispelled this saying that only a few voters actually wrote that down.

Here’s the full article from Inquirer.Net:

CITY OF SAN FERNANDO, Pampanga—Losing Pampanga gubernatorial candidate Lilia Pineda has been leading in the first two weeks of the revision of votes cast in the 2007 elections, her lawyer said on Sunday, a claim that the lawyer of Catholic priest-turned-governor Eddie Panlilio strongly contested.

“We are very, very satisfied with the initial outcome,” said George Irwin Garcia, lawyer of Pineda.

Since beginning the revision on August 12 in Manila, the Commission on Elections (Comelec), through 21 committees, has opened at least 1,000 of 4,688 ballot boxes in the province’s 20 towns and this capital city.

Without giving figures, Garcia said Pineda has obtained additional votes because several ballots with her nickname “Nanay Baby” have been credited to her recently.

“More votes have been added to us, those which were not counted by teachers at the precinct level, then removed from us,” he said.

“Other irregularities were discovered,” he added, requesting that the details of these be mentioned later.

But the governor’s lawyer, Ernesto Francisco Jr., said Garcia’s claims are the “product of imagination and creativity.”

“The truth is you can count with your two hands the number of ballots with the nickname Nanay Baby,” Francisco said.

Lilia Pineda or Pineda was often the name her voters wrote on their ballots, he said.

Garcia said if all 4,688 ballot boxes could turn up with one or two ballots with the nickname “Nanay Baby,” Pineda could easily overturn the 1,147 margin of votes of Panlilio.

He said the so-called straying of ballots written with “Nanay Baby” was a result of “administrative brouhaha” by the Comelec.

He said the Comelec’s law department released the directive approving the “Nanay Baby” nickname on May 10, 2007. This was released by the Comelec Pampanga on May 22 that year, he said. Pineda’s son, Lubao Mayor Dennis Pineda, said this was released on the eve of the elections.

Comelec Commissioner Nicodemo Ferrer did not reply to calls from the Philippine Daily Inquirer.

I’m not a big fan of Governor Panlilio, especially when he announced his decision to run for the Presidency in 2010. However, I do have one major apprehension about the recount.

Security of the Ballot Boxes
It’s been more than 2 years since the election. What guarantee do we have that the ballot boxes were not tampered or fixed during that period? What’s the security protocol for the ballot boxes after they get counted? Where are they stored and who has access to them? Corruption is so wide-spread in this government that it’s so hard to fully trust them with important matters like the ballot boxes.

I won’t be siding exclusively with Among Ed here, I just want to make sure that the entire process is credible and truthful otherwise this will just further erode the credibility and trust of the people in our voting process.

Related posts:

1. Pineda in, Among Ed out in Pampanga
2. Questions for COMELEC Spokesperson James Jimenez
3. A Call for Unity

Jesus is Lord (JIL) leader Brother Eddie Villanueva formally announced his intentions to run for President in 2010 in a press conference in Barasoain Church in Malolos, Bulacan. This officially makes him the third charismatic religious leader that’s joining the race for the highest position in the country in 2010. He joins the ranks of Pampanga Governor Ed Panlilio and El Shaddai’s Brother Mike Velarde. The leader of JIL explained that he got cheated out of the 2004 elections and that he’s determined to win the elections this time around. He will be the standard bearer of the Bangon Pilipinas Movement.

Here’s the complete article on ABS-CBN Interactive:

MANILA – Jesus is Lord Movement founder Bro. Eddie Villanueva on Friday formally announced his bid to run in the May 2010 presidential election.

In a gathering in Barasoain Church compound in Malolos, Bulacan, Villanueva said he has accepted the nomination of Bangon Pilipinas party as its standard bearer at next year’s presidential elections.

This is not the first time that Villanueva will run for the highest elective post in the country. The spiritual leader ran and lost in the 2004 presidential election, which saw then-incumbent President Gloria Arroyo win a fresh mandate.

In his speech, Villanueva said massive cheating marred the 2004 elections, which saw him get zero votes in Cavite and Pangasinan despite having many supporters there. “The cheating in 2004 furthered my resolve to run again,” he said in an interview after his acceptance speech.

Bangon Pilipinas is a political party which is not solely dominated by members or officials of Jesus is Lord Movement. Its senatorial slate includes former Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Perfecto Yasay Jr., Tom Meneses of the Seventh-Day Adventista and Ramoncito Ocampo, a lay preacher of the charismatic group, El Shaddai.

Asked if Bangon Pilipinas is open to an alliance with the popular El Shaddai movement of Bro. Mike Velarde, Villanueva said: “Bukas kami sa anumang alyansa, basta ang partidong makakasama namin ay consistent sa aming vision at mission na good governance.”

Bangon Pilipinas is now preparing a shortlist of aspirants in its Vice-Presidential slot, which will be announced on October in Plaza Miranda, when the party launches its full-blown campaign.
as of 08/21/2009 5:16 PM

Here are video clips for your viewing pleasure:

With all three of them in the race, they’re just reducing the chances of the opposition in winning the top post in 2010. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the administration candidate is able to win again because the opposition vote is split up among a lot of candidates.

I personally believe that these three men are doing a great disservice to this country by doing what they’re doing. That’s just my personal opnion. They have the right to run, but I really don’t believe that they have the training, competencies, and experience needed for the Presidency.

Related posts:

1. “Politics of God” – Bro. Eddie Villanueva
2. What would you ask Bro. Eddie Villanueva?
3. 2010: Battle of the Relgious Groups

If you guys regularly read the newspaper then you probably would have noticed right now that Brother Eddie Villanueva has been releasing semi-political advertisements (Bagon Pilipinas campaign). He’s also appeared on several programs on TV wherein he talked about his plans for 2010. Other than him, we also have Pampanga Governor Ed Panlilio who has already announced his intention to run for the Presidency. Lastly we have El Shaddai Brother Mike Velarde who recently said that he was considering his options as well for 2010. We now have three religious charismatic leaders who are saying that they’ve been called by God to lead the country as the President. This turn of events has so much implications in the political arena.

Fragmented Vote
If all three of them run, that would spell disaster for the opposition. The religious voting block will be split among all three leaders. Christians might support Brother Eddie, while other Catholics might pick either Brother Mike or Governor Panlilio. This will only benefit the administration candidate – whoever he or she is. I’m sure that the Palace is all smiles when they heard these three guys announce their intentions to run for office.

The more candidates run for 2010, the less votes the strongest opposition candidate will have against the administration.

Experience and Expertise
Leading a church is a totally different from running a country. While these three men might be in good moral standing, I’m not really sold on their expertise in public administration. This country needs a leader that can hit the ground running once he or she is elected. We can’t afford a President that will take time to learn the ropes. Each administration only has 6 years, that’s why it’s important we get someone who understands how government agencies work so that there won’t be a “courting” period anymore.

With all due respect to these three guys, I can’t just imagine them running the country effectively. Yes, they can probably hammer down on corruption, but ultimately the Presidency is more than just that.

It’s like what Malcolm Gladwell said in his book, Outliers. A person needs at least 10,000 hours of practice in one field or skill before he can be a master. I’m sure that these three guys have more than 10,000 hours of practice in preaching and counseling. The question is if they have the competency for all the other skill sets required of the Chief Executive of the country? In fact, I really don’t think it will be easy to stamp out corruption if you don’t know how it’s being done in the first place.

If I’m not mistaken, it was Brother Eddie Villanueva who said in a television interview that if the church is weak, the nation will also be weak. If that’s the case, then focus on your church. Continue saving lives by having them commit to Jesus. Build your church and continue to disciple and reach out. That’s your way of building a better nation.

Presidency, Criticism, & Hate
Let’s face it, being President is probably one of the hardest jobs ever. You can never please everyone, so there will always be criticisms and insults hurled your way. Even US President Obama, who was hailed as one of the most charismatic and down-to-earth Presidents, is now reeling from the punches being thrown at him by his detractors and the media. What was once a hero is now shaping up to be a villain. Can Bro. Eddie, Bro. Mike, and Gov. Panlilio handle all that hate? Let me change the question a bit – can the groups they’re representing, be it El Shaddai or JIL, handle all of that? Spare your church from all of that intrigue.

Instead of being politicians yourselves, why not just disciple the politicians of today and tomorrow? Build leaders from your own church and maybe someday someone who’s aligned with your moral values and believes in the same things you do but has the necessary skills and experience can become President.

Related posts:

1. JIL Bro. Eddie Villanueva To Run for President in 2010
2. Brother Mike Velarde Hints on Possible 2010 Candidacy Again
3. El Shaddai Bro. Mike Velarde to Run in 2010?